Missoula Housing Market
With Regulations Curtailed, How Will Missoula Add New Housing?
Missoula’s long-standing housing shortage has become even more severe in recent years. New limits on the city’s ability to add new housing have threatened to worsen the crisis, but city and county officials may have a few cards left to play. What does that mean for Missoula’s housing market in the immediate future?
State Legislature Hampers Affordable-Housing Efforts
In early 2021, Montana placed significant restrictions on the ability of county and municipal governments to create zoning rules intended to promote the development of affordable housing. Among other ramifications of this move is the hampering of Missoula’s efforts to focus housing development in ways that helped solve local problems.
New housing permits were issued in Missoula at a record-setting clip in 2021—1,338 to be precise, up 140% from 2020. But the mere addition of housing stock to a market desperate for new units might not be enough to offset the heightened demand that has increasingly priced working families out of Missoula home ownership. Lot prices alone exceed $100,000 throughout Missoula, a strong indication that new homes and subdivisions will continue to sell at a premium for the foreseeable future.
Zoning Reform: A Partial Solution?
Some city and county officials hold out hope that updates to greater Missoula’s zoning code can help stabilize the housing market. In the 46 years since the last substantial zoning revision, East Missoula has become more urbanized, along with Bonner and parts of the Wye. Missoula County officials expect to release a draft proposal of new zoning regulations on May 5, and every indication is that the new draft will seek to open more land to residential development while also protecting the county’s natural resources.
New zoning rules may not be able to specify the addition of affordable housing to Missoula’s market, but they may be able to address the housing shortage in different ways. For instance, they can encourage the development of larger multifamily residential buildings including apartments and condominiums. Vacancy rates for these properties fell below 1% at the end of 2021, even as the University of Montana, a significant driver of rental demand, saw its latest freshman class grow by nearly 16%.
Finding the Right Place for Vacation Rentals
Short-term rentals have become extraordinarily popular in the Missoula area—more than 300 properties in greater Missoula are listed on Airbnb alone. While new regulations are unlikely to prevent homeowners from letting out their properties from time to time, officials may rein in the licensing of short-term rental properties that do not double as their owners’ permanent residences.
Housing demand in greater Missoula is likely to remain high for the foreseeable future, and the combined effects of state law and local initiatives are likely to favor the development of larger, taller multifamily residences over single-family homes in the years to come. For homeowners, this will likely translate to resiliently high property valuations for single-family units, even as the rental market for apartments and condominiums begins to cool down.





